Investors trim bearish bets on Asia FX on coronavirus recovery hopes: Reuters poll

By Nikhil Nainan

(Reuters) – Investors trimmed short positions on Asian currencies, a Reuters poll showed, as China tries to jump-start its economy that has been ravaged by the coronavirus pandemic, and as a slew of measures by the U.S. Federal Reserve eased worries about dollar liquidity.

Investors were still bearish on all Asian currencies amid the coronavirus-driven rout, although signs emerged showing that virtual lockdowns and massive stimulus have started to help stem the spread of the outbreak and contain its devastating economic impact, the poll of 14 respondents showed.

Analysts said the trimming of bearish positions was aligned with significant central bank injections that have stabilised emerging markets, increased dollar funding and a potential peak in COVID-19 cases.

The Federal Reserve’s aggressive measures to cushion the impact of the pandemic on the U.S. economy also led to some reduction in dollar demand, easing pressure on bond and currency markets in Asia.

Bearish positions on the Indonesian rupiah fell from two weeks ago to their lowest since early March, after the central bank secured a $60 billion repo line with the Fed.

The facility helped the battered currency post its first weekly gain in four last week.

This week, Bank Indonesia opted for the stability of the rupiah – a carry trade favourite – when it kept interest rates unchanged, but cut the amount of cash banks must hold in reserve to boost liquidity.

Investors expect China, whose mammoth economy is revving up again and is a key trading partner for much of the region, to aggressively ramp up stimulus beyond the policy support announced on Wednesday.

Short bets on the yuan fell to their lowest since the start of December last year.

However, a sure-footed near-term economic recovery seems unlikely at this point as first-quarter GDP data on Friday is expected to show the first quarterly contraction since at least 1992.

“Markets are willing to believe that policy support will be significantly enhanced this year,” said Wei Liang, a macro strategist at DBS Bank, pointing to a likely increased fiscal spending despite sketchy details at this point.

Two countries that have been largely successful in their efforts to contain the virus were South Korea and Taiwan , and while investors had raised short positions on their currencies as the outbreak took hold, they have now lowered their bets to early-to-mid-March lows.

Short bets on the Indian rupee were also marginally trimmed just as the government extended a massive lockdown this week to early May.

The emerging market currency positioning poll is focused on what analysts and fund managers believe are the current market positions in nine Asian currencies: the Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee, Philippine peso, Malaysian ringgit and Thai baht.

The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3. A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long U.S. dollars.

The figures include positions held through non-deliverable forwards.

(Reporting by Nikhil Kurian Nainan in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)