By Jamie McGeever
ORLANDO, Florida, June 8 (Reuters) – The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rebounded on Monday from Friday’s tech-led rout, on news of an Israel-Iran detente and as investors bought back cheapened stocks. The recovery was fairly muted though, suggesting worries over interest rates and AI exuberance remain.
In my column today, I look at whether the adage that “economic expansions don’t die of old age, they’re murdered by the Fed” will apply to the AI-driven equity bull market. Friday’s selloff on the back of strong U.S. jobs data suggests it might.
If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today.
1. Iran and Israel say they have halted strikes on each other for now
2. How a few AI chip giants warped Asia’s stock picking game
3. Nvidia clinches deals with South Korean giants including SK Group to advance AI boom
4. Oil market calm masks a host of unknowns: Bousso
5. Japan’s economy cools on weak capex in Q1, revised data shows
Today’s Key Market Moves
• STOCKS: South Korea -9%, Japan -4%, China -3%. Europe, UK little changed. S&P 500 +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.9%, Dow -0.2%.
• SECTORS/SHARES: “SOX” chip index +6%. Only three of 11 sectors on S&P 500 rise: tech, energy, consumer discretionaries. Intel +11%, Micron Technology +10%, Apple -2%.
• FX: Dollar dips slightly, USD/JPY holds above 160.00. KRW soars 2%, biggest EM climber; CLP down more than 1%, biggest EM decliner
• BONDS: JGB yields +5 bps; U.S. yields +4 bps at long end, curve bear steepens.
• COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil up ~1%.
Today’s Talking Points
* Lacking luster
After Friday’s selloff, a bounce on Wall Street on Monday was always likely. We got one, but it was pretty patchy, at least at a headline index level – the S&P 500 rose 0.3% after falling 2.6%, the Nasdaq rose 0.9% after sliding 4%, and the Dow slipped further after losing 1.3% on Friday. Only three of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 rose.
This is all the more surprising given the Iran-Israel truce hopes. On the other hand, investors have had plenty of Middle East false dawns recently, and there was no pullback in bond yields to seize upon – longer-dated Treasuries actually rose on Monday.
* SpaceX in the City
This is the week. SpaceX lists on Friday, aiming to raise $75 billion, which will be the most ever for an IPO and value the company at an eye-watering $1.75 trillion. The mania is palpable, but there are good reasons for caution too.
SpaceX is changing who gets access to shares; it’s allowing an early exit for insiders; Elon Musk is not giving up control and can only be fired as CEO if he agrees to it; and it is still a loss-making business. Investors don’t seem to care about any of that right now though – demand is strong. Very strong.
* In Europe’s defense
Germany and France are scrapping a landmark project to develop and build a new-generation fighter jet, according to German sources, bowing to industrial rivalries over Europe’s most ambitious defense program.
The decision to end the core pillar of Europe’s largest defense project comes at a time when growing threats from Russia and the U.S. are piling pressure on Europe to re-arm itself. Monday’s development signals countries may be pursuing this on an increasingly unilateral basis.
What could move markets tomorrow?
• Developments in the Middle East
• Australia consumer sentiment (June)
• Taiwan trade (May)
• South Korea GDP (Q1, revised)
• Germany trade (April)
• Germany industrial production (April)
• Mexico inflation (May)
• Canada trade (April)
• U.S. trade (April)
• U.S. Treasury sells $58 billion of 3-year notes at auction
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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
(Reporting by Jamie McGeever; Editing by Nia Williams)
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