Multiple rounds of storms are expected to affect the Sheboygan area now through Wednesday, carrying with them threats of heavy rain, large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. A flood watch was already in effect between 4 PM Monday and 7 AM on Tuesday, with overnight rain rates of 1/2-1” per hour common while they traverse the area. The greatest uncertainty involves identifying any areas at greatest risk, given the scattered nature of the expected storms. However, both flash-flooding and river rises are expected while total rainfall of between 1 and 3 inches is anticipated area-wide.
NWS Graphic
Severe weather concerns tonight are centered upon possible high winds and large hail in addition to the rainfall. There’s also a slight risk of an isolated tornado, mostly west of a Neenah to Fond du Lac to Beaver Dam line. Isolated storm activity should begin developing between 4 and 6 PM with the first round clearing around midnight, but another round of storms that could bring damaging winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes is possible again between 1 and 3 AM as the warm front that serves to trigger the storms sinks southward through the area. Those storms should abate around sunrise on Tuesday.
NWS Graphic
On Tuesday the warm front will continue wobbling north and south across the region, with the resulting storms again threatening to produce large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes, along with rain that could exacerbate flooding threats. The main severe potential will be between 6 and 10 PM, with storms exiting by 1 AM Wednesday.
Wednesday’s forecast is more uncertain, but the feeling now is that the more energy expended on Tuesday, the less is available for severe weather on Wednesday. The main hazards will be the same as before, but to a lesser extent and with small hail and flash flooding the most likely offenders.
NWS Graphic
Once again, the advice is to keep up with the forecasts.
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