LONDON, April 13 (Reuters) – Global financial policy makers gather in Washington for the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group Spring Meetings this week against the backdrop of yet another global economic shock – this time from the Iran war https://www.reuters.com/world/iran/.
The latest economic strife – marked by soaring borrowing costs, energy prices and inflation prospects – will amplify pressure on a number of emerging market nations nL1N40T0HR, from Sri Lanka and Egypt to Pakistan, that had been just emerging from the other crises of recent years.
Here is a selection of those and other countries expected to be in focus:
UKRAINE
IMF funding is key for Ukraine, which struck a two-year $8.1 billion programme with the Fund in February.
One major external obstacle to keeping IMF funding on track may have been removed: Sunday’s election ouster of Hungarian Premier Viktor Orban is expected to pave the way for 90 billion euros of European Union funding to Kyiv, a precondition for the IMF programme.
However, Ukraine also still needs to pursue nL8N40M0DE an ambitious domestic reform programme ranging from raising revenue nL1N40Q0KE to tackling corruption and greater exchange rate flexibility.
“The key question domestically is if we see more, and we do need to see more, efforts by the Ukrainians to pass these pieces of reform, and they seem like they’re going there,” Roger Mark at asset manager Ninety One said.
SENEGAL
The West African nation’s economic outlook is still murky nL4N40F1NP due to the discovery of billions in undisclosed debt, which prompted the IMF to halt a $1.8 billion loan programme in 2024.
Talks on a new programme are ongoing, but correcting the debt burden would likely require a painful and lengthy fiscal consolidation nL1N4010LS, which may not be easy for local authorities.
“Without the large fiscal effort, the Fund may ask Senegal for some sort of debt treatment, which has been firmly rejected by the authorities,” JPMorgan analysts said in a note, adding they expected talks between Dakar and the IMF nL8N3ZK1NZ to continue. “Our base case of a new IMF arrangement remains tricky, with a muddle-through scenario as another option.”
MOZAMBIQUE
Mozambique has been in talks with the IMF since mid-2025 over a new lending programme. The country has said it wants to restructure its debt nL8N3YG1I1, though it has yet to outline any details. In a surprise move, it also repaid dues to the IMF early in March – though that was interpreted as a sign it wanted to secure fresh funds down the line.
“Mozambique’s recent payment nL4N40K0WH is a bold attempt to acquire further credit from the IMF,” Christian Franken at Oxford Economics said. “Indeed, we expect such a loan agreement to be finalised in Q2 2026.”
GABON
Gabon’s authorities formally requested nL6N3ZZ0YJ a Fund programme in March to support their reform agenda. Years of political instability have left Gabon, the second-largest CEMAC economy, in an economic crunch with dwindling reserves.
Talks on the contours of a programme are expected to continue during the Spring meetings.
EGYPT
In the past two years, Egypt has unlocked billions in IMF funding and foreign direct investment from Gulf states. But heavy exposure nL4N40O00I to energy imports, GCC remittances and tourism makes Egypt vulnerable to the fallout from the Iran war.
Some expect Egypt to ask for an augmentation of its IMF programme which includes an $8 billion Extended Fund Facility and a $1.3 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility. The Fund is due to review the programme for the next financing tranche in June, but analysts expect delays could push that to later in the year.
VENEZUELA
Venezuela’s $5 billion in special drawing rights – the IMF’s own currency – has been frozen since 2021 as its government was not recognised by a majority of IMF Board Member countries – a status that has yet to change under the leadership of President Delcy Rodriguez.
But with the Fund consulting nFWN40S0GI on the matter, this could soon change. A data blackout nL6N40T03E, which has stymied engagement with multilateral lenders, is also being faded out, with Caracas releasing batches of macroeconomic data in recent weeks. Some analysts say this could be seen as a precursor to a formal IMF mission nL6N407138 visiting Caracas in coming months.
(Reporting by Karin Strohecker and Libby George, editing by Andrew Heavens)
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