With this week being Flood Safety Awareness Week in Wisconsin, the actual threat may seem theoretical, at best. A winter shy of the usual snowfall amounts is resulting in a clear lack of concern on the part of National Weather Service Hydrologists, who give the Sheboygan River Basin an 11% chance of exceeding flood stage for the next three months (March 3 – June 6). The chance of exceeding a minor flood stage during that period…based on historical values…is given an 11 in 28 chance, while the odds of the Sheboygan River exceeding a moderate flood stage is listed as 6 in 8.
The seasonal flood outlook coincided with the latest data on drought conditions, which identified 86% of Sheboygan County as experiencing a Moderate Drought. The far northwestern portion is just “abnormally dry”. This follows the second driest January on record over the past 131 years, mirroring the driest year-to-date record, with 1.3” less than the normal expected liquid precipitation so far in 2025.
That being said…on January 31st, the National Integrated Drought Information System had predicted that drought conditions would NOT develop in February.
NWS Graphic
The seasonal outlook for March through May indicates temperatures will likely reside near normals, while precipitation is likely to exceed the normal.
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