A typical spring cycle of alternating dry and wet days is well-established here for 2024, and the next round of wet weather will come on Friday in the form of two lines of thunderstorms. While the first, expected to occur between 11 a.m. and 3 p.m. will be of greater concern to our west, the second round, forecast to move through Sheboygan County between approximately 7 and 9 p.m., could generate severe weather nearby, if not within the county itself.
The first round of storms may produce gusty winds up to 40 mph and small hail, but no severe weather is expected as it passes from west to east through the state. After its departure, fair weather and rising temperatures into the mid-upper 70s, especially away from Lake Michigan, are likely. The sunshine that accompanies that break may help to fuel the next round which, along with the presence of a warm front, may help push some of the resulting storms past severe thresholds. Concern is greatest for high winds, while large hail is given a low-medium chance of fruition. Even lower, but not absent, is the possibility of an isolated tornado between 7 and 9 p.m. in an area that could include Sheboygan County.
The overall risk of severe weather has increased from a 1, to a level of 2 out of 5, as the warm front of concern is now expected to travel further north than initially anticipated by late afternoon, increasing the odds that the second round of storms could generate warnings in the southern half of the state.
Forecaster confidence isn’t all that high yet, and so later forecasts should give a better idea of whether or not heightened attention by the public is warranted.
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