National Weather Service Meteorologists have been assessing today’s risks of severe weather since late last week, and with any significant events just hours away, the latest information has some relief – but no dropping of the guard.
As of noon on Tuesday, the risk of strong to severe storms in eastern Wisconsin has largely been dismissed. However, confidence of widespread impacts from an expected line of severe storms this evening has not diminished and residents are advised to be prepared for possible outcomes of damaging straight-line winds, large hail, heavy rains, and even possible tornadoes in the Sheboygan and surrounding areas.
Although some storms may affect our area during the earlier afternoon, none of those are forecast to pose a problem. Attention then shifts to the later hours of today.
An “enhanced” 3-in-5 risk of numerous severe storms remains on the table, with widespread severe impacts anticipated somewhere in southeastern Wisconsin after 6 p.m. There is no guarantee that such storms will materialize, but the need to prepare is being emphasized by NOAA forecasters. And like any “games of chance”, it’s all about the odds.
The greatest severe weather risk locally is that of damaging winds, which have been assigned a “Very High” possibility within a 25-mile radius of any one point existing between 6 p.m. and midnight. Even so, the odds of any area within any 25-mile radius experiencing that is between 30 and 44 percent. The odds of damaging hail in a similar area are 5-14% in eastern Sheboygan County, 15-29% in the western third. Tornado chances are even smaller, but not absent, with a 5-9% probability here, and none exceeding EF1, defined as winds from 86-110 miles per hour, are expected. That type typically causes damage to a roof’s edges or corners. The next step up are EF2 tornadoes, with winds between 111 and 135 mph, and those are capable of tearing off roofs. That risk, however, is more likely near Madison or the Wisconsin Dells.
National Weather Service Graphic
Forecasters emphasize the need for preparing in advance. The most likely result from the weather in Sheboygan County would be that of downed trees and branches, and the resulting power outages and cluttered roadways that could result.
Any activity that does occur should be over by midnight, and Wednesday looks to be favorable for any work that might need to be done in response.
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