WASHINGTON, March 2 (Reuters) – Democrats face an uphill battle to capture the U.S. Senate in the November midterm elections, as Republicans are defending just two seats seen as competitive by nonpartisan analysts and hold a 53-47 majority. Democrats are defending four competitive seats and would need to pick up another four to take the majority. Elections will be held for 35 of the chamber’s 100 seats this year.
TEXAS
Texas has been a Republican stronghold for generations, but a messy primary could put a Senate seat at risk. Incumbent Senator John Cornyn, a traditional establishment conservative, is trailing populist Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in opinion polls, and the presence of a third candidate, Representative Wesley Hunt, could push Tuesday’s primary to a May 26 runoff if no candidate wins an outright majority.
Paxton has a loyal following among conservative activists, thanks to his attacks on Texas immigration groups and what he calls illegal voting, and he appears to be the frontrunner despite a series of personal and professional scandals. He has won three statewide elections, most recently in 2022, but analysts say a primary victory could make the state more open to a Democratic upset.
The Democratic primary faces a marquee matchup between Representative Jasmine Crockett, a partisan warrior with an in-your-face style, and state Representative James Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian who is aiming to appeal to more moderate voters. Analysts say Crockett could appeal more to Democratic primary voters but would have a harder time winning a general election.
NORTH CAROLINA
Democrats have an opportunity to pick up an open seat in North Carolina, where Republican Senator Thom Tillis is opting to retire after clashing with Trump over immigration, the Federal Reserve and fiscal matters.
The state’s moderate former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper is favored to win Tuesday’s primary, while Republicans have lined up behind Michael Whatley, who previously led the party’s political arm as chairman of the Republican National Committee. Trump has endorsed him.
Analysts see the race as one of the most competitive this year.
ALASKA
Though this northern outpost usually elects Republicans, this year’s Senate race could be competitive as former Democratic Representative Mary Peltola seeks to unseat incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan.
Sullivan has held the seat since 2015 and should be favored to secure another term in a state that Trump won by 14 points in the 2024 election.
While Sullivan is a mainstream conservative Republican, Alaskans have also repeatedly shown a willingness to back more moderate candidates, such as Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski.
Peltola, another moderate, has demonstrated the ability to win a statewide race. She became the first Alaska Native elected to Congress in 2022 and narrowly lost her seat in 2024.
MAINE
Five-term Republican Senator Susan Collins of Maine is no stranger to a competitive election. As chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, she oversees government spending levels, a job that has also led to clashes with the Trump administration this year.
A party moderate, she is deemed the Republicans’ best chance at holding the seat. Her challenger is likely to be either the state’s current Democratic governor, Janet Mills, or the progressive rival, Graham Platner, who will face off in a June 9 primary.
Mills, 77, is older than Collins, 72, and would be the oldest senator ever elected to a first term. The Democratic base cheered Mills when she stood up to Trump in defense of transgender rights. Platner is an oysterman and Marine Corps veteran running on a populist message, though controversies over past online comments and a tattoo that resembled a Nazi symbol have highlighted his political inexperience.
GEORGIA
In the four competitive Senate races that Democrats need to defend, two are in states with Republican governors, underscoring the political challenge. Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is running for reelection in Georgia after flipping the seat in an early 2021 runoff.
Ossoff, 38, is the youngest current senator. He has focused on issues relevant to his state, such as leading the fight against cuts to the Atlanta-based Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Trump has not endorsed anyone ahead of the May 19 Republican primary, extending the three-way competition between U.S. Representatives Mike Collins and Buddy Carter, and the Republican governor’s pick Derek Dooley, an attorney and former college football coach.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Democrats will need to defend an open seat here as three-term Senator Jeanne Shaheen is retiring. The New Hampshire race’s three main contenders are familiar to the state’s electorate, famous for civic engagement.
Both Republican candidates in the September 8 primary have already served in the Senate. John E. Sununu represented the state for one term until he lost in 2008, and Scott Brown served between 2010 and 2013, representing neighboring Massachusetts. Trump has endorsed Sununu.
On the Democratic side, Representative Chris Pappas, a four-term centrist, would be the first openly gay man elected to the Senate.
OHIO
Formerly a swing state, Ohio has steadily trended to the right over the past decade, ousting long-serving Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown in 2024.
Brown is running again, hoping he will fare better in a year when Trump is not on the ballot.
But he faces a tough opponent in incumbent Republican Senator Jon Husted, who served as secretary of state and lieutenant governor before he was appointed to the Senate to fill Vice President JD Vance’s seat.
MICHIGAN
With Senator Gary Peters retiring, both parties have a chance to win a Senate seat in this midwestern battleground state.
Multiple Democrats, spanning the party’s ideological spectrum, are running in the August 4 primary. Four-term Representative Haley Stevens is courting her party’s leadership, as Michigan state Senator Mallory McMorrow and Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive activist, try to show they can break the establishment mold.
Trump endorsed former longtime U.S. Representative Mike Rogers for his second Senate campaign. The Republican served in the Army, worked in the FBI and ran unsuccessfully for the Senate in 2024.
(Reporting by Andy Sullivan and Bo Erickson; Editing by Scott Malone and Cynthia Osterman)
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