By Nell Mackenzie
LONDON (Reuters) -Hedge funds added more bearish positions than bullish ones in March than at any time since 2020, doubling down on bets that U.S. stocks have further to fall, according to a Goldman Sachs note sent to clients on Thursday.
Since the beginning of March, the S&P 500 has fallen almost 5%, while an index of world stocks minus the United States has risen 3%, heading for its best first-quarter performance since 2019, with a gain of 8% so far.
The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday lowered its economic growth outlook for this year and raised inflation projections amid uncertainty from President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs.
Rather than retreating from the market altogether, as many investors did when stocks dropped sharply earlier this month, hedge funds have instead continued to add trades, with a clear preference for ones that bet on more declines, the Goldman Sachs note, seen by Reuters on Friday, said.
After the first week in March, hedge funds ditched their stock holdings over 48 hours at the fastest rate in four years, as the S&P fell 3.1%, its worst weekly performance in six months.
Bearish bets on U.S. stocks have swelled and this dynamic is not apparent in Europe and Asia, where hedge funds simply exited losing trades and have not returned, the bank said.
Hedge funds’ exposure to tech and media stocks has, in the meantime, hit a five-year low, with some now shorting the sector, while others have added bearish bets on AI-related shares. Funds that focus on tech have negative returns of 4.1% this month, while those that concentrate on healthcare show a negative return of 1.5%, Goldman said.
Globally, stock pickers are up 1.5% this year so far, recovering from their worst two-week period since May 2022, said Goldman Sachs.
Systemic hedge funds profited while markets were falling, returning 8.9% so far this year, the bank said.
(Reporting by Nell Mackenzie; Editing by Amanda Cooper and Chizu Nomiyama )
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