GREEN BAY, Wis. — Trying to predict what the dairy market will do in 2025 is not easy. There’s the threat of higher tariffs, the danger of avian influenza and losing employees due to immigration reform, but there’s also room for growth.
During a 2025 dairy market outlook presentation at Dairy Strong, Mike North, president of Ever.Ag, said tariffs are a big deal for farmers and something they should pay attention to since it may decrease exports and lead to lower sales.
North said it is possible the government may supplement farmers’ income if tariffs hit the industry hard. “I know no one likes a handout but we may need it to get through this,” he said.
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Dr. Marin Bozic, Edge board advisor, said that dairy trade is just a fraction of all agricultural trade, and that agricultural trade is small relative to overall US international trade.
“It is likely that the Trump administration will look to reduce overall US trade deficit, but I am confident farmers will be made whole against short-term turmoil such reset may cause,” he said.
Immigration reform is another concern among farmers who worry about losing some of their workforce. Here too, Bozic said the president may look elsewhere for changes, knowing how much farmers rely on immigration for their labor.
Farmers have been concerned about immigration and their workforces since the late 2000s, North said.
“We keep looking for a solution and I’m not sure we’ll find one in the next four years. I agree with Marin that we won’t see any big changes because the Republicans in Congress need the votes of farmers again in two years,” he said.
Avian influenza is another threat to the dairy industry. California’s cow herds have been hit hard by bird flu and North predicts the disease will show up in Wisconsin. Infected cows produce less milk and most recover with treatment. Milk from infected cows can be safely used if it undergoes pasteurization.
“We need to be prepared,” he said.
Growth outlook
While the industry has challenges, North said there are several positives in the dairy market, such as the growth in consumption of protein shakes and bars.
“We’ve seen 20% of whey production growth due to the popularity of protein products,” he said. “It’s a nice addition to the market.”
Consumption of cheese is also on an upward trend. North pointed out the increase in cheese exports.
“We saw a new record in cheese exports in 2024 and hopefully that is something we will see continue in 2025,” he said. “It’s been great for the industry.”
Demographics also play a role in the increase of cheese consumption. As people get older, they tend to drink less fluid milk and eat more cheese, North said.
“The population is aging so I expect higher cheese sales,” he said.
With more people consuming cheese, there are several new cheese plants coming online from South Dakota to Texas. Some are replacement plants while others are new with owners hoping to cash in on opportunities, North said.
“It’s important for farmers to maintain open lines of communication with their processors so they know what changes may be coming,” he said.
This year’s Dairy Strong conference brought over 400 attendees, representing over 150,000 cows, and industry professionals to Green Bay for the annual conference.
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