The Green Bay Packers are about to head into thinner air on Sunday in Denver, Colorado and if things don’t start turning soon, the 2023 season will be on thin ice. The 2-3 Packers, playing the NFL’s oddest schedule over the past month, hope to right the ship that’s taken on water over the course of a mini-bye after getting mauled by those cats from Detroit, leaving Las Vegas with a loss on a Monday night that took them through the full bye week. They’ll face a 1-5 Broncos team that is best known for new coach Sean Payton ripping into Nathaniel Hackett and the Miami Dolphins putting a 726 yard, 70 point lathering on his ponies.
The leaks have been springing all season. Already a shaky ship with a first year starting quarterback, nothing but plebes on deck at receiver, raw recruits at tight end and the only true rear admiral, running back Aaron Jones lining up behind Jordan Love, has dressed only twice. Don’t forget the cannonball that hit on the port side after one week when left tackle David Bakhtiri’s season ended. Captain Matt LaF’eur has been severely challenged to design a more effective game plan in spite of the youth and have it carried it out with more precise execution by his crew.
That crew still hasn’t had the preferred 22 starters on the field once this season, and seven of of those haven’t escaped the injury list even having only played two games since September 28. LaFleur joked after rattling off the 10 names on the post-bye final injury report, “It’s like, did we play a game last week, eh?”
Linebacker De’Vondre Campbell is doubtful, likely to miss another game thanks to a high ankle sprain. The questionable list is where things get interesting. Aaron Jones, Elgton Jenkins and Yosh Nijman on offense, Jaire Alexander, Darnell Savage, Quay Walker, Devonte Wyatt, Zayne Anderson and still on the PUP, Eric Stokes from the defense.
Just another thing LaFleur says he has to deal with, it’s the NFL. He’s taking a team a mile up to a place Green Bay has descended a winner only once in seven tries. That included my first visit on a snowy night on October 15 of ’84 when two quick fumbles turned into 14 Denver points in a 17-14 loss. The last trip west also came post-bye in 2015 when it was a battle of unbeatens. Peyton Manning badly outplayed Aaron Rodgers (77 yards passing, sacked three times) in a 29-10 romp that started a three game skid. The only victory in the series, 19-13, came in 2007 when Brett Favre hit Greg Jennings with a run off, 82 yard overtime touchdown.
With that, on to the matchups.
When the Packers have the ball.
If, and until I see it, a big if Aaron Jones returns and appears in form, the Packers offense could look and operate differently in so many ways. The wide zone runs should return. The Packers have been relegated to pounding A.J. Dillon between the tackles without Jones with only spotty success. That’s also reduced the number of jet-like motions which opposing edge containers appreciated. The Bronco run defense is just one of the categories that ranks dead last. That Dolphin day skewed a lot of numbers but they’ve had trouble stopping anyone on the ground. I’ll be curious to see how many touches Jones will get but even if it’s a limited count, any extra attention from a defense because of his big play threat, should result in opportunities for others. The entire offense, Love included, are methodically answering the ‘how can you fix” it questions from the media. To help build a rhythm, look for shorter, timing routes. If they can make plays on early drives with hopefully a touchdown or two, we’ll see if the self-scout checkmarks are made. It’s almost an “if not this week, when?” proposition for the offense on Sunday. They hope to climb near Denver’s 33 points allowed per game average even with less reliance on explosive plays.
When the Broncos have the ball.
Russell Wilson can still cause problems. Denver’s ball handlers are all capable with Javonte Williams and rookie Jaleel McLaughlin in the backfield, Cortland Sutton, rookie Marvin Mims, Jr. and the grumpy Jerry Jeudy at receiver. If Alexander has to take another powder because of the recurring back issues, I can’t imagine the Packers activating Eric Stokes to the 53, he hasn’t played a snap in 11 months, look for Carrington Valentine to get another shot. I’m of the belief Savage, Walker and Wyatt are on the positive side of questionable. Building off the Raider effort, the Packers have to keep the backs in check, McLaughlin averages 6.6 a pop. Forcing Wilson to make plays will be easier for the Pack if he’s forced to do it from within the pocket. Edge rusher Kingsley Enegbare offered up a couple of interesting stats about Wilson. He has the shortest drop among quarterbacks. If it doesn’t come out quick, he’ll be quick to use his legs and extend if not run. Enegbare said Wilson is also the league leader in getting balls batted or tipped. Look for the rushers to come with their hands up. Finding someone other than Rudy Ford to deliver a takeaway would be beneficial and the Broncos have been generous with turnovers at -5. Denver has only topped 21 points once since the Miami massacre, that was when the Bear gifts led to a rally from 21 down in their only win of the season, 31-28.
The bottom line.
It’s head scratching. The number of questionable players off so much rest. Jones is a must to jump start what LaFleur calls his “choppy” offense. He could tilt the field on his own if he makes plays like he did at Soldier Field. Denver is in the middle of a KC sandwich, playing spirited against their division rivals on the road last week and they’ll get ’em at home after Green Bay comes calling. They’ve lost all three of their home games so far, they get behind this one, a fourth could follow. Only if the offense starts to display a vastly improved level of execution. With Jones, there’s a chance.
I like the Pack, 26-20.
