GREEN BAY, WI – Ho (Bears), Ho (Rams), Ho (Dolphins?).
Will the Green Bay Packers unwrap another win on Christmas Day at Hard Rock Stadium or will the Miami Dolphins force the Pack to exchange the entire 2022 season that would all but come to a disappointing end with just one more loss? St. Nick will have his work done by kickoff but you can bet he’ll tune in to find out.
I got a sense the Packers are far more upbeat about what amounts to a third straight playoff game than they were after dispatching New England on the final play of overtime to get to 3-1 way back in early October. Defensive back Rasul Douglas gave me an interesting twist on this idea during the week when I asked him about the vibe in the locker room and among the coaching staff.
Miami is led by first year Head Coach Mike McDaniel, yet another branch from the Shanahan coaching tree that has produced the next wave of successful NFL bosses. Sean McVay has won a Super Bowl, Kyle Shanahan has gotten there, as has Zac Taylor. Brandon Staley has a team in the hunt, Matt LaFleur of course had his Packers knocking on the door in each of first three seasons and now McDaniel who has his Dolphins at 8-6, holding down the 7th and final Wild Card Spot in the AFC. But Miami has to shake off three straight losses, all on the road, all to teams that have either clinched, or holding down a playoff spot, the Chargers, the 49ers and last week, to the Bills in overtime. Sunday will have a playoff feel to it for sure.
When the Packers have the ball.
Aaron Rodgers felt good about the 24 points put up on the Rams last Monday night because he knows it very easily could have been 31 or 38 if not for a couple of turnover-squandered opportunities. There’s no question the offensive execution is on the upswing down the stretch. The run game was punishing and despite almost exclusive two-high coverage, young wide receivers Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs were able to find openings underneath for a combined nine receptions. The Dolphin defense plays more spirited at home but they have shown to be vulnerable this year. Coordinated by Josh Boyer, Miami relies on creative pressure and aggressive secondary play. If that pressure applied by Bradley Chubb and Melvin Ingram off the edge gets home, players like Xavien Howard and Jevon Holland can get their hands on passes. On the other hand, if protection holds, that aggressiveness can work against the Dolphin defensive backs with big plays the result. I expect the Packers will continue trying to soften up Miami’s front with a healthy dose of A.J. Dillon who quickly exited the concussion protocol last week, with both run and pass touches involving Aaron Jones. The emergence of Watson in the second half of the season got the attention of the Rams who matched him up with Jalen Ramsey a lot, keeping the safeties deep to prevent balls going over their heads. If Miami takes the same approach, targets should open up for others downfield like Doubs, Allen Lazard or even Bobby Tonyan who’s been very quiet of late. The Green Bay offense, with a minimum of self-inflicted mistakes, should be able to keep this one within reach.
When the Dolphins have the ball.
This may be Joe Barry’s last shot. The besieged Defensive Coordinator has been on a hot seat most of the year and unless he comes up with a game plan to neutralize what may be the league’s fastest collection of perimeter players, LaFleur will have no choice but to consider a change. It’s not like the Dolphin system is foreign to the Packers. McDaniel runs his offense much like many of that coaching tree does, lots of shifting, plenty of motion, designed to create mis-matches post-snap and to get the ball into the hands of dangerous playmakers as soon as possible. The Dolphins have plenty, beginning with NFL passer rating leader Tua Tagovailoa (107.8). The lefty will take deep shots with his burner wideouts Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle but more often than not, he’ll hit them on shorter routes while on the move and they simply outrun defenders. The secondary must reduce if not eliminate explosion and rally to the ball when it’s thrown underneath the blanket. Miami also has a running game option that Green Bay is sadly familiar with. Raheem Mostert, after dealing with injury the past couple of seasons, is back in form. He singlehandedly ended LaFleur’s first season in Green Bay by piling up 220 rushing yards with four touchdowns in San Francisco’s playoff route in 2019. The Dolphins tend to go away from Mostert early but considering the struggles of Barry’s run defense most of the year, I’d expect McDaniel will call his number early and often to set up the rest of the play action options off of it. Keys for Green Bay will be sound tackling and decision hastening pressure on Tagolvailoa.
The bottom line.
Following the loss in Philadelphia, this was the remaining game on the schedule that gave me pause. I don’t believe the Dolphins are head and shoulders above the Packers but they are much more explosive at home. If the Packers do find a way to win, while I won’t climb aboard the playoff bandwagon just yet, I will be more convinced they could become a dangerous post-season team. Alas, I think the Christmas miracle run ends in Miami.
I like the Dolphins 31-24.
