LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2022 red meat and poultry production is raised from last month as higher beef, broiler, and turkey forecasts for the fourth quarter are partly offset by lower pork. Beef production is raised with higher expected cattle slaughter as well as heavier carcass weights. Pork production is lowered on lighter carcass weights. Broiler and turkey production are raised on current slaughter and hatchery data. Egg production is raised slightly on revised third-quarter data. For 2023, the beef forecast is unchanged, with offsetting first and second quarter changes. Broiler production is raised on more rapid expected growth in bird numbers later in the year. Turkey production is lowered for the first half of the year on recent discoveries of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza. Egg production is reduced on a slower expected pace of recovery. Beef imports for 2022 are unchanged, but exports are raised on recent data. Exports are raised for 2023 on expectations of continued momentum to East Asian markets. Pork imports and exports for 2022 are both lowered on recent data. Pork imports for 2023 are lowered slightly, while exports are unchanged. The broiler export forecast for 2022 is raised on recent trade data, while 2023 exports are lowered. Turkey exports are unchanged, but imports are raised for both years on current data and tightness in domestic supplies. Price forecasts for cattle, hogs, and broilers are unchanged for 2022 and 2023. The turkey price forecast for 2022 is lowered on current price data, but the forecast for 2023 is unchanged. Egg price forecasts for 2022 and 2023 are raised on recent prices and expectations of continued firm demand and tight supplies. The milk production forecast for 2022 is unchanged from last month. The 2023 production forecast is raised slightly with both higher expected cow numbers and slightly more rapid growth in output per cow. Fat and skim-solids basis imports for 2022 are raised, driven by recent trade data and expectations of continued demand for imported cheese and butterfat products. Forecasts for 2023 fat basis and skim-solids basis imports are raised on imports of butter and milk proteins, respectively. Exports on a fat basis for 2022 and 2023 are raised on butter and casein. Exports on a skim-solids basis are raised in 2022 as higher nonfat dry milk (NDM) more than offsets lower lactose. The 2023 forecast is reduced on lower lactose shipments. For 2022, forecasts for butter and cheese are raised on recent prices and expectations of continued strength in demand, but whey and NDM prices are unchanged. The Class III price is raised on the higher cheese price and the Class IV price is raised on the higher butter price. For 2023, the price forecasts for cheese and butter are raised as demand strength carries into 2023, but prices for NDM and whey are lowered on pressure from international markets. The higher cheese price more than offsets the lower whey price and the Class III price is raised while the Class IV price forecast is lowered, reflecting the lower NDM price. The 2022 all milk price forecast is raised to $25.65 per cwt and the 2023 all milk price is raised to $22.70 per cwt.
World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Dec 13, 2022 | 8:04 AM
