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LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:
The forecast for 2022 red meat and poultry production is raised from last month as higher beef and broiler forecasts for the fourth quarter are partly offset by lower pork and turkey forecasts. Beef production is raised with higher expected cattle slaughter as well as higher carcass weights. Pork production is lowered on a slower expected pace of slaughter. Broiler production is raised on current slaughter and hatchery data. Turkey production is lowered based on tighter bird supplies. Egg production is lowered from last month on recent hatchery data. For 2023, the beef forecast is lowered on tighter supplies of fed cattle and lower cow slaughter. Broiler production is raised on expected growth in broiler flocks. Turkey production is lowered slightly for the first two quarters. Egg production is reduced as slower expected growth in production in late 2022 is carried into the first part of 2023. Beef imports for 2022 are lowered on recent data, higher expected U.S. cow slaughter, and weaker expected imports from Oceania in the fourth quarter. Exports are lowered on recent data and expected weaker exports to Asian markets. No changes are made to beef trade for 2023. Pork imports are lowered and exports are raised for 2022 on observed data. Weaker imports are carried through into 2023, but exports are unchanged. Broiler export forecasts for 2022 are raised on recent trade data while 2023 exports are unchanged. Turkey exports are raised for 2022 and 2023 on current trade data. Cattle price forecasts for 2022 and 2023 are raised on stronger expected demand. The 2022 hog price forecast is raised on prices to date; 2023 prices are unchanged. The broiler price forecast for 2022 is lowered on recent data, but 2023 forecasts are unchanged. Turkey price forecasts for both 2022 and 2023 are raised with lowered expected production. Egg price forecasts for 2022 and 2023 are raised on recent prices and expectations of continued firm demand. The milk production forecast for 2022 is raised from last month, while 2023 production is unchanged. The dairy cow inventory for both years is lowered on recent published data but output per cow is raised. Fat and skim-solids basis imports for 2022 are lowered, driven by recent trade data and lower expected imports of cheese and butterfat products. Forecasts for 2023 fat basis imports are lowered on weaker butterfat products, while skim-solids basis imports are raised on cheese. Exports on a fat basis for 2022 are lowered on weaker expected exports of cheese and butterfat products but raised for 2023. Exports on a skim-solids basis are raised in 2022 on higher expected exports of skim milk powders (SMP) and lactose and for 2023 on higher SMP and whey exports. For 2022, forecasts for butter, cheese, and nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices are lowered on current prices and larger milk supplies. Whey prices are unchanged. Both Class III and Class IV prices are lowered on weaker product prices. For 2023, the price forecast for butter is raised, but lowered for cheese and NDM. Whey prices are unchanged. With lower cheese and NDM prices, Class III and Class IV price forecasts are lowered. The 2022 all milk price forecast is lowered to $25.50 per cwt and the 2023 all milk price is lowered to $22.60 per cwt.
