New York, New York.
For only the second time, the other taking place in September of 1985, the Green Bay Packers will go from one Big Apple team to the other.
A disappointing loss to the Giants in London last week has fueled the team for this Sunday’s date with the Jets, kicking off at 12:00 PM at Lambeau Field.
By the way, Forrest Gregg’s Packers beat the Giants in Green Bay in week 2 of that season, 23-20, but they stumbled against the Jets the following Sunday in Milwaukee, 24-3. Matt LaFleur is hoping for a reversal of fortunes for the 2022 double New York dip.
Both clubs enter with records of 3-2 and they are being looked at almost as if the Packers were 0-5 and the Jets 5-0. An offense still struggling to find consistency was expected going in. What hasn’t been anticipated is the play of the defense. At times, Joe Barry’s unit plays sound, even well above average football. But gaps on over routes, hit and miss run defense at times has not allowed the defense to hold down the fort enough for the offense to find it’s footing. That’s why Green Bay’s 3-2 record has followers nervous. In New York, a franchise that hasn’t been to the playoffs since 2010, and hasn’t won more than 7 games in a season since 2015, fans are excited and giddy over the young team’s quick start. Head Coach Robert Saleh won only 4 games in his rookie campaign but 7 first or second round picks in 2021 and ’22 are in his starting lineup only a victory away from matching that total. The Jets were piloted early by veteran Joe Flacco while Zach Wilson was mending from a training camp injury. Flacco’s improbable comeback effort in week 2 in Cleveland got New York back to 1-1 and they’ve won 2 of 3 since, coming off a resounding win against the Miami Dolphins last week. A young team brimming with confidence could provide another stern test for the established playoff contending Packers who might still be wondering why a complete game remains elusive.
It’s certainly not a must game in my eyes, those occur only when facing playoff elimination. Still, this counts as a pretty important one. It would clearly reinforce the feeling that New York is entering it’s jet stream way ahead of schedule. The Packers know even more pointed questions will be coming with a 3-3 record. They’ll be donning the early 1950’s throwback uniforms for the contest, back home looking for a 16th consecutive regular season victory. My guess the Packers will be an ornery bunch by kickoff.
When the Packers have the ball.
Offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich isn’t going to put together a “stubborn” game plan, reliant on the run even into seven or eight man boxes. We’re a multiple offense he says. Multiple touches for the players who carry the run game remains the key. Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon have been effective, but just not quite busy enough. Aaron Rodgers hinted the offense is very close to breaking out and finishing plays at all three levels of the defense is needed. Until Sammy Watkins and Christian Watson (ruled out this week) return, that last level of the defense may not get tested enough. Without deep balls, opponents are squeezing the box with extra bodies and the Packers have had trouble creating cracks in that crowd, running or passing. Stenavich’s game plan will have to find ways to loosen up that box. He’ll have to do it against a defense that ranks 10th overall. They bring pressure on 60% of opponent dropbacks which has led to seven interceptions from six different players. Inside pass protection may be more important as Quinnen Williams leads the team with 3 sacks from his defensive tackle spot. Backup edge rusher, first round pick Jermaine Johnson, is out with an injury. The secondary likes man coverage so it will be incumbent for the receivers to get separation and be in the right spot for Rodgers to deliver. His thumb should not be a problem after practicing both Thursday and Friday. If the Packers stay committed to the run and exploit matchups seven to 15 yards downfield, they should be able to stay in rhythm to finish drives and climb into the upper 20’s on the scoreboard.
When the Jets have the ball.
Defensive coordinator Joe Barry is promising a more aggressive approach in the secondary, even matching up with tight man coverage moving forward. The safer, two shell coverage plan has repeatedly been exposed by crossing or over routes for the last couple of weeks. New York has the weapons to create problems again. Former Titan Corey Davis is the muscle bound target on one side, impressive first round pick Garrett Wilson is on the other. Tight end Tyler Conklin is second on the team with 21 receptions. This will be the third start for Zach Wilson since coming back from an August knee injury. Second rounder Breece Hall has given Wilson a good enough run game to set up the action game. With Rashan Gary questionable with a toe injury, the pressure package might have to be altered. After Gary, Preston Smith and Kenny Clark, the Packers are getting next to nothing on the pass rush. Wilson is small, quick and athletic. Look for a Kyler Murray type containment plan for the front. New York put up 40 points last week but had short fields most of the day. The Packers, the league’s best third down defense going into London, found out the hard way how long drives can become if conversions are surrendered. This should be a very motivated defensive day.
The bottom line.
The Packers have been very good at home since LaFleur arrived. They also don’t drop back to back games in the same regular season. Those trends will continue. LaFleur will get the better of his best friend.
I like the Pack, 23-16.
