If the Packers have been on the fortunate side of the ledger this season, winning eight of ten games with a revolving door roster because of injuries, the Minnesota Vikings have been the poster team for unfortunate luck this year.
Mike Zimmer’s Vikings stand 4-5 but in all nine games, they have had at least a one touchdown lead, sometimes more, but find unique ways to lose. Three games have gone to overtime and they’ve survived only once. A missed field goal at the gun denied them a victory at Arizona. Now three and a half games behind the Packers in the NFC North race and still in the hunt for a Wild Card run, Minnesota may be at the point of no return if Green Bay pulls off a win at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Vikes are coming off a 27-20 victory against the Chargers in Los Angeles and feel like they’re at least at, if not around the corner.
This should make for a spirited affair in Minneapolis.
When the Packers have the ball.
It’s been spotty offensive play for Matt LaFleur’s side for nearly a month. Not having Aaron Rodgers for the Kansas City game is one thing, but it was a struggle for three quarters against Seattle with him on the field. They’ve been able to gain yards but red zone issues and a very shaky field goal unit has kept points off the board. Now they’ll have to press on without one of their dynamic playmakers with Aaron Jones shelved with an MCL sprain. Rodgers hasn’t even practiced for the last three weeks and it’s showed in the level of execution overall. It’s A.J. Dillon’s turn as the lead back and I expect his touch count will soar above 20. The Packers need him to be effective to thwart the best part of the Minnesota defense, their pass rush. They come in with 29 sacks although their team leader, Danielle Hunter with six, is now on injured reserve. Zimmer’s scheme has given Green Bay problems in the past, but Minnesota’s overall talent isn’t as imposing as it was even three years ago. Eric Kendricks and Harrison Smith, back from a two week COVID stay offer strong play up the middle so look for Rodgers to attack outside the numbers. Davante Adams will have very winnable matchups against corners Mackensie Alexander and one time Packer Bashaud Breeland, a big step down from the Xavier Rhodes, Trey Waynes combo of the past. If the hard charging pass rush comes upfield to fast, Rodgers will utilize screens or checkdowns. The most explosive play against Seattle was the little flare pass that Dillon took up the sideline for 50 yards. The young offensive line will have to endure the ear splitting decibels of the home crowd which is another reason a big rushing game is needed.
When the Vikings have the ball.
A bevy of playmakers will challenge the Pack’s surging defense. Kirk Cousins has the best touchdown to interception ratio in the league (18-2), he has wily veteran Adam Thielen finding holes in zones for 7 scores and the dynamic Justin Jefferson down the field (55 receptions, 775 yards). The key however, is running back Dalvin Cook. He singlehandedly destroyed the Packers at Lambeau Field last year, piling 226 total yards with four touchdowns. It starts there for the front seven. If Cook is at least neutralized, Green Bay will put pressure on Cousins to make the plays. As Preston Smith said this week, “It’s not a cardio game for us”, meaning they won’t be chasing Cousins around like they had to with the likes of Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson the last three weeks. He’ll only bolt the pocket if he has to and the Packers are better off if they can collapse the pocket. Another reason for the run defense to eliminate play action possibilities.
The bottom line.
I think the secondary can hold up against the Minnesota aerial attack but they’ll need to create just a couple of takeaways to give the struggling offense a bonus possession or two. You hate to say you’d like to see the Vikes get into the lead as they have all year, but coughing up those leads has been the storyline. Minnesota plays Green Bay tougher than any division rival, going 6-4-1 against the Packers in the last 11, handing LaFleur his only NFC North loss so far, but Green Bay has reeled off seven straight division victories on the road. Make it 8, barely in what should be a very hard fought contest.
I like the Pack, 24-21.
