It’s a rare trip to Houston for the Green Bay Packers this week. They traveled deep into the heart of Texas three times when the Oilers called Houston home before moving to Tennessee and this will be the third time they’ve played the Texans on their turf and the first visit since 2012. After stumbling badly in Florida, not far from Cape Canaveral last week, the Packers (4-1) look to lift off again in the headquarters city of NASA against the 1-5 Texans.
The McNair family sacked Head Coach and General Manager Bill O’Brien after a winless opening month, even though he led the team into the final eight of the 2019 playoffs. Veteran defensive minded lieutenant Romeo Crennel is the interim coach for a squad that regularly puts up a good fight but hasn’t gotten the results. Four of their five losses have come against the best of the AFC, the Chiefs, Steelers, Ravens and Titans who are a combined 20-2. Houston has had leads in nearly all of their games and can score points, they just can’t stop anyone.
Deshaun Watson is an exciting young quarterback who has a nice receiving corps in Brandin Cooks, Will Fuller and former Packer Randall Cobb, who took the place of their best receiver, DeAndre Hopkins, traded away in the off-season by O’Brien.
Even with the beloved J.J. Watt on defense, the Texans surrender more than 30 points, 420 yards and a league worst 177 yards rushing a game.
This is the first of the four games Green Bay will play against teams from the AFC South.
When the Packers have the ball.
It could be musical chairs up front Sunday if left tackle David Bakhtiari has to sit out for the first time since 2017. He went down with a chest injury last week in Tampa and hasn’t practiced all week. Instead of just replacing Bakhtiari on the left side, don’t be surprised if the Packers have Elgton Jenkins move one position to his left and play tackle, letting Lucas Patrick jump from right guard to left, squeeze Billy Turner over to the right guard and have veteran Rick Wagner handle the right tackle, by far his better position. That would move four players to replace one but it would give the Packers their best five up front.
After protection issues surfaced against the Buccaneers pressure (5 sacks, 13 quarterback hits), this group will have to fend off not only Watt but Whitney Mercilus up front. That may be the only consistent threat they’ll face. If the offensive line can muscle up and run block against a porous rush defense, Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams could cut loose for a big day. Derrick Henry blistered the Texans for 212 yards and a couple scores last week.
Getting the run game revved up should help the passing attack, despite the diminished production of the wide receiver group outside of Davante Adams. Allen Lazard was the last wide receiver to find the end zone and that was against New Orleans when he landed on injured reserve with a core muscle injury. Adams missed that game and the Atlanta contest, returning against Tampa with six receptions. The collection of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Darius Shepherd and Malik Taylor have combined for just 10 catches in the last two weeks. Somebody is going to have to win one on one matchups as Houston will certainly be paying attention to Adams.
Robert Tonyan’s ankle injury has kept him sidelined most of the week although he did some running on the side. He leads the Pack with five TD grabs and would be a welcome target Sunday. If he can’t go, Jace Sternberger will see a big jump in snaps and opportunities.
Aaron Rodgers felt the Tampa game was an anomaly, not the start of a trend. If the Packers can’t get back to their first month form on offense against Houston’s struggling defensive unit, trend setting dissenters will be out in force.
When the Texans have the ball.
According to Pro Football Focus, the Packers are affecting the quarterback more than 50 percent less than they did a year ago. The opposing quarterback rating against the defense was a respectable 81.0 in 2019, it has climbed to 107 this year. The pass rush has gone after veteran pocket passers like Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Tom Brady in the last three weeks. They were only able to reach Ryan when Za’Darius Smith had a hat trick of sacks. Brady was barely touched a week ago. Sunday, the Packer defenders will be chasing an elusive and willing runner in Watson. When he does throw the ball (107.5 rating), he likes home runs. His top three receivers all have between 22 and 28 catches sharing 8 touchdowns. Even tight end Darren Fells averages nearly 15 yards a catch.
The issue for the Packers will be to contain Watson, keep the top from coming off and making sure the stretched open second level of the defense is covered with excellent communication.
Houston’s running game features former Cardinal David Johnson, a dangerous straight line runner with above average speed but he’s averaging less than 60 yards a game.
A final point of emphasis for the Packers will be taking advantage of, without seeking, opportunity for take-aways. They have a league low three after five games.
The bottom line.
This game should look a lot more like the first four than the last one. I expect the Packers to put up a fair amount of points and force the Texans to try and keep up. It would behoove the defense to come up with stops and/or turnovers to give the offense an extra possession or two that might turn Houston’s offense one-dimensional. Matt LaFleur hasn’t lost back to back games since taking over the team and I believe it won’t happen this weekend.
I like the Pack 34-31.
