I really miss the Battle of the Bays.
For 25 years, the Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers were division rivals and while there were times when the series digressed to the Bay of Pigs, there were plenty of memorable moments.
Lynn Dickey riddled the Bucs for 410 yards but it went for naught when Tom Birney said “It was God’s will” that he missed a couple of chip shots in what wound up as a 14-14 tie at the old Sombrero in 1980. Mike Holmgren’s first win as Packers coach came in Tampa in 1992 when whoa Nelly Keith Jackson caught three touchdowns. I’m sure Chad Clifton hasn’t forgotten Warren Sapp’s cheap shot that put Cliffy in the hospital for a week back in 2002. I was there for all of ’em but the pandemic will keep me home for the 55th all-time meeting Sunday at Raymond James Stadium. (Packers lead the series 32-21-1 with one playoff victory to boot.)
The Pack’s meteoric 4-0 start will certainly be tested by the 3-2 Buccaneers, believing a 13 year playoff drought will end this season thanks to a GOAT, a Gronk and an impressive defense.
Purists should sit back and enjoy what might be the last game pitting two of the game’s all-time quarterbacks together in 36 year old Aaron Rodgers and 43 year old Tom Brady. Seven Super Bowl victories between them (Brady 6 Rodgers 1) and a handful of NFL MVP awards (Brady 3 Rodgers 2). This is easily the most decorated QB duel of the year.
So will Green or Tampa be the best of the Bays?
When the Packers have the ball.
The first month of the second season with Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers has been incredibly efficient. Tops in scoring, second in yards per game with not a single turnover. Both coach and quarterback have talked how impeccable the timing of the offense has been. Tampa’s defense will be intent on shutting down the run and speeding up that timing. The Packers must keep the Bucs honest by rushing the football even when yards are hard to come by. Aaron Jones will test the flanks, Jamaal Williams and perhaps A.J. Dillon will pound away between the tackles. Getting behind the chains is a recipe for trouble as Tampa defensive coordinator Todd Bowles is very creative with pressure packages. They have 17 sacks from 7 different players and that pass rush allows a young secondary to play sticky, short term coverage which has generated a half dozen interceptions. The caveat is, Rodgers will make you pay if you don’t get home. The offensive line has allowed only three sacks in four weeks and two of them as Rodgers confessed, are on him. He’s the league’s highest rated quarterback against the blitz and having Davante Adams and his expert route running back on the field this week should lead to effective hot reads. After tight end Robert Tonyan’s three touchdown night against the Falcons, Tampa safeties will need to pay attention to him which creates one on one matchups for the rest of the passing game targets. Two other productive offenses have made plays against this unit, the Saints put up 34 points on opening day and the Chargers had 31 on the board before Brady rallied the Bucs with a five touchdown effort. Look for new wrinkles on old formations and motions to get Tampa defenders moving with their feet or their eyes. While the Packers will be hard pressed to hit their per game average of 38 points, they have enough versatility to dent the toughest defense they’ll face to date.
When the Buccaneers have the ball.
Packers defensive coordinator Mike Pettine has faced Brady more than anyone from his days as Rex Ryan’s assistant with the New York Jets. He said this week you can’t go into a game with only a couple of defensive ideas because Brady will figure them out and exploit them. “He plays chess while others play checkers”, is how Pettine put it. Brady’s mind is much sharper than his body and it’s evident on deep sideline throws. They’re not getting to the receiver quite as fast, evidenced by a couple of pick sixes he’s thrown. But he still has 12 touchdown tosses, half to a big, talented target in Mike Evans. This could be the pivotal matchup for if rangy Kevin King can’t play (he missed practice all week with a quadricep injury), Brady will go after whoever is guarding Evans. Chris Godwin is an explosive threat at receiver but he’s been slowed by a sore hamstring. The Bucs lost a very good tight end in O.J Howard but they still utilize Cameron Brate and Rob Gronkowski. Gronk was coaxed out of retirement and he’s been more window dressing that playmaker so far. The Packer tackling must improve with Ronald Jones in the backfield. A strong runner with a burst, he’s put up 359 yards this year, getting just under five yards a pop. Kenny Clark’s return on the defensive line will certainly aid that effort. Watch for Za’Darius Smith to rush almost exclusively from the middle as Brady, never known for his nimbleness, rarely scrambles. His in-pocket movement is still excellent and Preston Smith told me this week when he slides left or right, he already knows where he has to go with the ball. Hitting him, maybe even more than sacking him, should be the goal of the Packer rush. I’m just not convinced Tampa can score consistently enough to keep pace with the Packers.
The bottom line.
A couple of things are working in the home team’s favor. They’re coming off a mini-bye after losing to the Bears in Chicago a week ago Thursday and Tom Brady rarely loses back to back games. They are at home where fans will be in as many as 15,000 seats in what could be a hot, humid and possibly a wet stadium. But the Packers are two for two on the road this year, 8-2 away from home under LaFleur. While they haven’t faced a murderer’s row of defensive units in September, the ease in which they’re moving the ball and scoring points leads me to believe an above average, but not great defense won’t be able to slow them down enough either.
I like the Pack in the next Battle of the Bays, 26-23.
