3-0 vs 0-3. Prime time at Lambeau Field. Last one before an early bye week. Plenty of reasons to like the Green Bay Packers against the Atlanta Falcons in the only Monday Night Football appearance of the season this week.
Yet for every argument in favor of the Packers getting off to a 4-0 start, there are rebuttals that should give the team pause.
Let’s start with the medical situation which started off badly this week and only seemed to get worse. Allen Lazard and Christian Kirksey both went on injured reserve by week’s end after Lazard got hurt in New Orleans and Kirksey went down in Detroit. For the linebacker, it was a shoulder injury, for the wide receiver, it was a core muscle injury that no one seems to know how and when it occurred but it was bad enough to require surgery when the team returned from the 37-30 victory over the Saints.
Another touchdown scoring player last week is wounded, veteran tight end Marcedes Lewis has a knee injury and is doubtful to play Monday night. Among the 16 players listed on the final injury report, 9 are questionable. Those players include Davante Adams, working through a hamstring injury that occured against Detroit in week 2, Kenny Clark with a groin injury that knocked him out of the season opener. Corey Linsley suffered a groin injury late in the practice week and is a 50/50 bet to play. Jaire Alexander, Josiah Deguara, Rashan Gary and Za’Darius Smith are all nursing injuries and are also questionable.
And that’s just the medical news inside Lambeau Field. Outside the stadium and throughout the city and county, the coronavirus caseload has exploded. A public health emergency has been declared and the anxiety level is very high. Positive cases at Tennessee and New England have forced the league to jumble the schedule.
The bye comes as early as possible for the Packers but they might not be allowed to travel to even get away.
Then there’s the winless Falcons, extremely desperate and angry after blowing double digit leads to the Cowboys and Bears in the last two weeks. If the Packers think this will be a walk in the park, with a week to relax, they may have another thing coming.
So let’s match it up.
When the Packers have the ball.
If there’s no Lazard or Adams, the Packer receiving corps would be led by Marquez Valdes-Scantling along with the extremely inexperienced Darius Shepherd and Malik Taylor. There’s a chance practice squad pass catchers Reggie Begelton or Robert Foster might get pressed into duty as game day call-ups. At least the air attack will face a thinned Atlanta secondary with Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen, both starting safeties, have been ruled out with injury. Look for tight ends Robert Tonyan and Jace Sternberger to stretch the field down the middle.
It might be an evening for the ground game to exert itself. Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams are healthy and A.J. Dillon is well rested after not getting a single offensive snap last week.
The Packers have been among the league’s best in ball control so far this season and my guess is they’ll get the rushing game going to shorten the game and keep Atlanta’s offense watching.
When the Falcons have the ball.
Get ready for the deep shot early. The Falcons jumped on the Bears on the opening series with Matt Ryan hitting Calvin Ridley deep. Offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter likes to stretch secondaries right away and take advantage of reactionary gaps the rest of the way. Ridley and Julio Jones are both nursing injuries but are expected to play. Russell Gage and Brandon Powell are decent backups but it’s a big drop off in skill sets. Tight end Hayden Hurst gets his share of targets and Todd Gurley is hoping to revive his career in the backfield.
Ryan still prefers to throw from the pocket and has a tendency to hold on to the ball longer than he should, giving the Packers edge rushers an opportunity to get home.
If the Packers get out front, the Atlanta protection might not hold up long enough.
The bottom line.
I think the Packers have done a good job dismissing the last game and preparing for the next. They won’t look at the records. How they adjust to possibly not having key personnel will be huge. If Shepherd or Taylor can produce downfield, the offensive juggernaut should keep rolling. I like the Packers to win 31-20.
