This analysis says that, in part, President Obama's numbers are falling because he's no longer being compared with Mitt Romney. Well, I would argue the absence of campaign means no campaign ads, and that's hurting him. But I think both are secondary causes, at best.
I get the sense the public is very much on to the Scaremeggedon hoax. Kimberly Strassel writing at the Wall Street Journal recently argued that cutting White House tours was the jump the shark moment for Obama and I think she was right. Americans saw that petty move and compared it with the lavish personal spending of the Obamas that continues despite the gloom and doom talk.
And, at last, his lack of leadership seems to have caught up with him:
“This may be the downside of him coming out of the box stronger in the second term,” Miringoff said. “People are now looking for him to lead us out of this stalemate, provide more leadership. People see him as a strong figure and in the driver’s seat. During the election, it was him versus Romney. Now it’s him versus people’s expectations for the country.”