A collection of good news compiled by the RNC. Trust me when I say I'm not over confident. But Mitt Romney has the look and feel of a winner right now. That feeling is momentum. The race is far from won, but the wind is clearly at Mitt's back.
Washington Post: Post-ABC tracking poll: Romney 50 percent, Obama 47
Republican Mitt Romney has edged ahead of President Obama in the new Washington Post-ABC News national tracking poll, with the challenger winning 50 percent of likely voters for the first time in the campaign. These advantages with independents undergird a sizable, 19 percentage-point Romney lead over Obama on the horse race. Should that advantage stick, it would be the sharpest tilt among independents in a presidential election since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 landslide win. (Reagan won independent and other unaffiliated voters 63 to 36 percent, according to the exit poll). Obama won them by eight in 2008.
- · Romney has a 19-point lead with Independents
- · Trust to handle the economy -- Romney 52 - Obama 43
- · Who understands economic problems of avg. Americans -- Obama - 48, Romney 46 percent
- · As Romney hits 50, the president stands at 47 percent, his lowest tally in Post-ABC polling since before the national party conventions
The new surveys, taken after last Monday's third and final presidential debate, show that Mr. Romney has gone a long way toward repairing what had been a battered image. In both states, a slim plurality of people said they had a favorable impression of Mr. Romney, rather than an unfavorable one. That was a reversal from the prior surveys, in which more people in both Colorado and Nevada had said they viewed Mr. Romney unfavorably than favorably. Mr. Romney had faced a particular challenge in Colorado, where 50% of poll respondents had viewed him unfavorably and 43% viewed him favorably only five weeks ago. Mr. Miringoff said the Republican nominee had closed the gap with the president in Colorado by gaining support among women and independent voters. In both states, Mr. Romney holds a slight, 3-point edge when voters are asked which candidate would do a better job of handling the economy.
Toledo Blade: Confident Romney starts two-day tour of Ohio
Mitt Romney sought to exude confidence today as he began a two-day tour of battleground Ohio just hours before President Barack Obama was to touch down. “Those debates have helped propel my campaign, and they've slowed down the President's, and those are good things for my campaign,'' the former Massachusetts governor told an estimated crowd of about 3,000 after touring a Worthington Industries manufacturing plant near Columbus. Some polls have shown the race for the belwether state to be a dead heat while others have given Mr. Obama a slight lead. “We're going to have to make a decision about what kind of course we have, because when it comes to the economy and jobs, the President's agenda is more of the same,'' Mr. Romney said. “He wants to continue doing what's been done for the last four years...He calls that going 'Forward.' I call it forewarned.''
AP-GfK Poll: Romney Edging Out Obama On Economy
Americans are growing increasingly optimistic about the future of the U.S. economy, and likely voters trust Republican Mitt Romney slightly more than President Barack Obama to do a better job of managing it, an Associated Press-GfK poll shows. On the cusp of an election offering stark choices on how best to handle the economy, 60 percent of Americans still describe the current economic situation as poor, but almost as many think things will get better in the coming year. More voters expect the number of unemployed to go down, too. Forty-two percent anticipate improvement in the jobs picture, up 10 percentage points from a month ago
What gender gap? Less than two weeks out from Election Day, Republican Mitt Romney has erased President Barack Obama's 16-point advantage among women, a new Associated Press-GfK poll shows. And the president, in turn, has largely eliminated Romney's edge among men. Those churning gender dynamics leave the presidential race still a virtual dead heat, with Romney favored by 47 percent of likely voters and Obama by 45 percent, a result within the poll's margin of sampling error, the survey shows. After a commanding first debate performance and a generally good month, Romney has gained ground with Americans on a number of important fronts, including their confidence in how he would handle the economy and their impressions of his ability to understand their problems. At the same time, expectations that Obama will be re-elected have slipped: Half of voters now expect the president to win a second term, down from 55 percent a month earlier.
More than 325,000 ballots had already been cast in Colorado by mail or in early voting center as of Wednesday morning, according to figures released by the Colorado Secretary of State's office. Republican turnout outpaced Democrats by more than 5,000 registered voters. The turnout breaks down into percentages as follows:
•39 percent Republican
•37 percent Democrat
•24 percent Unaffiliated/Other
Dave Wasserman Troubling for Obama: Arlington -22.0% vs. '08 turnout, FAIRFAX -16.7%, Richmond -12.7%, Alexandria -12.9% (statewide just -5.2) https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/261557430599684096
Boston Globe: President Obama, Mitt Romney wooing early voters
Republicans learned the lesson the hard way: In the new arithmetic of presidential politics, counting on Election Day votes doesn’t always add up to victory. In 2008, John McCain won the majority of votes cast at the polls that day in the crucial states of North Carolina, Florida, Iowa, and Colorado, but his victory margin was wiped out by support for Barack Obama among the millions of voters who cast ballots early. The result: McCain netted not a single electoral vote in those four key states. This year, early voting will be even more essential, with about 40 percent of the ballots cast before Nov. 6 — up from about 31 percent in 2008. And Republicans are competing vigorously, more so than ever before, even as the party has tried to limit early voting in some areas, most notably in Ohio, where Obama could benefit. Trying to match vaunted Democratic field operations in tossup states, Republicans are mining troves of data to identify possible supporters and then help them vote early: offering guidance on applying for and mailing absentee ballots, reminding them of deadlines, and offering rides to early balloting locations. As of Wednesday, at least 6.5 million Americans had voted. “Our mission is to cut into the gap from 2008,’’ said Kirsten Kukowski, a spokeswoman for the Republican National Committee. “Our focus right now is in getting people who wouldn’t necessarily come out to vote, so on Election Day we can focus on getting out our base.”
Republican challenger Mitt Romney held a 1 percentage point lead over President Barack Obama in Thursday's Reuters/Ipsos daily tracking poll in a presidential race that is effectively a dead heat less than two weeks before Americans vote. In a repeat of Wednesday's results, Romney led Obama among likely voters by 47 percent to 46 percent, a statistically insignificant margin, in the four-day online tracking poll. The race has tightened since early October, around the time of the first of three televised debates between the two candidates. With Romney and Obama barnstorming the key battleground states of Ohio, Florida, and Virginia on Thursday, 13 percent of registered voters and 30 percent of independents said their vote remains up for grabs in the November 6 election.
National Journal: Young Americans Turned Apathetic By Washington Squabbling, Bad Economy
Every weekday at the crack of dawn, David Simms wakes up in his childhood bedroom. If he can find an empty seat in the dim, yellow lighting of the crowded Metro car he rides to work, he skims his textbook. He gets to his desk at Reznick Think Energy in Bethesda, Md., at 8:40 a.m., where he cranks out reports on the state of the solar and biomass industries until 5 p.m., for intern’s wages. Every evening, he takes the Metro to White Flint, then drives to Gaithersburg for three hours of classes that will count toward the master’s degrees that Simms hopes will catch the eye of a full-time employer. …Simms is frustrated that the federal government is doing very little to help him and his fellow young workers who graduated into the worst job market in decades. He is discouraged by the ever-increasing cost of education, the lack of jobs for young people, and the sacrifices he has been forced to make to pursue his career. When he looks at Washington, he doesn’t see problem-solving, just agenda-pushing, political posturing, and a lack of forward thinking on issues that are critical to young people, such as student-loan rates.
Los Angeles Times: In Iowa, the race becomes surprisingly competitive
For Barack Obama, Iowa was the state that launched his path to the presidency, turning a long-shot candidacy into a freight train. For Mitt Romney, the Hawkeye State was always an expansive quagmire where he never could quite win the trust of its voters, who helped sink his 2008 bid for the presidency. Yet less than two weeks before the November election, Iowa is surprisingly close and a potentially crucial factor with its 6 electoral votes. On Wednesday, Obama and Romney campaigned 80 miles apart on the eastern side of the state. Late in the day, Obama made a quick pit stop in Los Angeles to tape "The Tonight Show," where he poked fun at Donald Trump and criticized an Indiana Republican's assertion that pregnancy resulting from rape was God's will. Then the president was off to Nevada for a late-night rally. In Iowa, under oaks awash in fall yellows, Obama gathered Iowans at a fairgrounds in Davenport and appealed to them like a native son. The rally was the start of a two-day, six-battleground-state blitz — a grand tour to jump-start his campaign had to start in Iowa, he said. "Because this is where it all began four years ago — on your front porches, in your backyards. This is where the movement for change began," he said. "And Iowa, you will once again choose the path that we take from here."
Associated Press: Once Obama country, Colorado now razor-close
Four years ago, Barack Obama used this state as both a stage for his nominating convention and a place to show how his new brand of politics could unite young voters, women and minorities to create a winning coalition even in places that normally back Republican presidential candidates. Now Colorado has become an example of how hard it has been for him to maintain that coalition against the headwinds of a sour economy and his own disastrous first debate performance in Denver. Republicans and Democrats alike agree that Colorado is a toss-up in this election. Like other battleground states, a slight Obama polling edge before October here has been transformed into a deadlock. That's because independent suburban women - the key demographic in this closely divided state - are taking a second look at Romney. Some analysts see an enthusiasm gap between Obama's supporters and his rival's. And the president's attacks on Romney's wealth may resonate less here than in blue-collar Midwestern battlegrounds like Ohio. "He should be doing better and he isn't," said independent pollster Floyd Ciruli, a former chairman of the state Democratic Party. "It's the worst (swing) state of the bunch for him; isn't that amazing? It's the place we thought he could use as a model."
Rasmussen Reports: Virginia: Romney 50%, Obama 47%
Mitt Romney still earns 50% support in Virginia, but the presidential race remains a toss-up in the Old Dominion. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters finds Romney with 50% support to President Obama’s 48%. Only one percent (1%) remains undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) Last week, Romney hit the 50% mark for the first time here, while Obama earned 47% of the vote. With the exception of last week, however, the candidates have been within two points or less of each other in every survey in Virginia since April.
Rasmussen Reports: Election 2012: Pennsylvania President: Obama 51%, Romney 46%
President Obama still earns over 50% of the vote in Pennsylvania. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Pennsylvania Voters shows the president with 51% of the vote to Romney’s 46%. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and two percent (2%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) This is unchanged from two weeks ago and matches Obama’s highest level of support in the Keystone State first reached in mid-September.
CNN: William J. Bennett: Romney's momentum can help him win
All three presidential debates are now in the books and the race to the White House is taking its final shape. Looking back, the first debate was undoubtedly the watershed moment of this campaign and the most powerful inflection point in the race to date. President Obama regained some lost ground in the next two debates, including Monday night's event, but the damage had already been done. Mitt Romney now carries the momentum into the home stretch. Like in the second debate, Obama came out Monday night more aggressive and more provocative. He threw more punches and landed more punches, centering his attacks on trying to characterize Romney's foreign policy as amateur and reckless. But there was an air of desperation in his delivery. It was as if he knew he needed to not just defeat Romney, but to destroy him. He fell far short of that bar.
Back in May, I wrote a column laying out possible scenarios for the 2012 campaign different from the conventional wisdom that it would be a long, hard slog through a fixed list of target states, like the race in 2004. I thought alternatives were possible because partisan preferences in the half dozen years before 2004 were very stable, while partisan preferences over the last half dozen years have been anything but. Now, after Mitt Romney’s big victory in the October 3 debate and his solid performances in the October 16 and 22 debates, there is evidence that two of my alternative scenarios may be unfolding. The list of target states has certainly not been fixed. Barack Obama’s campaign spent huge sums on anti-Romney ads to create a firewall in three states that the president won narrowly in 2008 — Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. But post-debate polling shows Romney ahead in Florida and tied in Virginia. National Journal’s Major Garrett reported last week that Obama strategist David Plouffe omitted Florida and Virginia in a list of key states but mentioned Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Obama carried the latter three by ten, ten, and twelve points respectively in 2008.
Wall Street Journal: Romney Tells Iowans ‘We Are Going to Win’
Mitt Romney predicted better days ahead for America – and a Republican win on Election Day – as he continued his blitz through battlegrounds Wednesday. The Republican presidential candidate managed to spend time in four time zones Wednesday, starting his day in Colorado, campaigning in Nevada and Iowa and then flying to Ohio, where he’ll launch a bus tour Thursday. During a brief stop at an airplane hangar in Cedar Rapids, Mr. Romney continued to cast this as a defining election, both for the country and for families. He said that President Barack Obama is campaigning on the slogan “Forward,” but for the people who are struggling to find good jobs, to pay off college debt and to keep up with rising health care costs, there’s been little hope of moving forward.
Daily Beast: Romney’s Surge
With just two weeks to go until Election Day, the popular vote is, as everyone knows, effectively a dead heat. The Real Clear Politics average has Romney enjoying a 0.9-point advantage. And while the latest Rasmussen numbers give Romney a 4-point edge and he is ahead 5 in Gallup, there are other polls that have Obama leading. In the latest IBD/TIPP poll, for instance, the president is up by 2. Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney greets supporters at an election campaign rally at the Reno Event Center in Reno, Nev., Wednesday, Oct. 24, 2012. But there are two other crucial indicators that show momentum for Mitt. The first is the trend in the Electoral College—and one state in particular. At this point, many of the states in the Real Clear Politics “toss ups” category appear likely to go one way or the other. Florida and Virginia will probably go for Romney, while Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan will most likely be won by the president. And so, as we’ve argued before, that leaves Ohio as the state that will likely decide the election. The polls from Ohio currently show a dead heat, but they also show momentum for Romney. Just two weeks ago, Obama was up 10 points in the state. Today, that margin has closed to 3 in the latest SurveyUSA poll. Meanwhile, the latest Suffolk (PDF) poll has Ohio tied (at 47) and Rasmussen also has a tie (at 48). All of this is clearly good news for Mitt.
National Journal: Poll: Romney Closes Gender Gap Among Women
Poll shows Obama closes gap among men, more optimism for the economy. Mitt Romney has closed a 16-point gender gap with President Obama among women in just one month, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll released on Thursday. Now tied with Obama at 47 percent among women, Romney has closed what was once a double-digit lead for the president. Additionally, women now view Romney as the better economic candidate, 49 percent to Obama's 45 percent. Just a month ago, Obama was favored over Romney 56 percent to 40 percent. However, among men, Obama has closed the 13-point gap that existed a month ago. Romney’s lead among male voters is now just five percentage points, according to the poll. In the 2008 election, Obama edged Sen. John McCain by one percentage point among male voters at 49 percent. Throughout his term in office, men have typically disapproved of the president’s performance more than women.
NumbersMuncher: Rasmussen daily has Romney up 3, 50-47. Romney is up 13 among indys. Sample is D+4 (was D+3 yesterday).
Gallup Likely Voters: Romney 50%, Obama 47%
Washington Examiner: Public says Romney won debates, 49%-41%
Despite flash polls that found President Obama won the last two of three presidential debates on points, the public gives Mitt Romney the victory overall, probably because Romney dominated the first and most-watched clash. Rasmussen Reports on Thursday said that 1,000 likely voters he polled said Romney beat Obama, 49 percent to 41 percent, a reversal of 2008 when Obama won over Sen. John McCain, 47 percent to 33 percent. Those interviewed said that Romney explained his positions more clearly that the president. What is remarkable in the poll is that just 8 percent of likely voters did not watch the debates, a finding that shows how interested the public is in the upcoming election. He said that 63 percent watched at least part of all three presidential debates.
Former Democratic Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell said he “believes” a victory for Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in Pennsylvania is “a possibility” since both President Obama and Romney have not actively campaigned in the state. What is the Romney campaign thinking? Rendell speculated. “Maybe they’re saying, ‘With two weeks to go, we probably don’t have enough time to influence voter choice by 5 percent, but maybe if we just stay quiet — and the Obama folks stay quiet — maybe the Democratic turnout basically collapses,” Rendell suggested at a U.S. Chamber of Commerce forum with former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum on Wednesday.