Saturday was one of those rare days that, for whatever reason, I didn't blog anything. And there were two significant stories on which to comment; a possible North Korea missile test and the SCOTUS decision Friday to take up two gay marriage issues; California's Prop 8 and a single provision of the federal Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) Most observers believed SCOTUS would shy away from this for now, I was among them.
Allahpundit, writing at Hot Air, makes a compelling case for how the Court decided to hear these cases. It does make sense that the conservatives are willing to take their chances now with the unpredictable Justice Kennedy, rather than let President Obama alter the court in the near future. And remember all of the howling over "precedent" when SCOTUS decided the 2nd Amendment DOES apply to states, reversing an earlier ruling? Well, a ruling against gay marriage now would mean reversing precedent by a liberal court in th e future.
Hot Air also dissects how this ruling might shake out, given the conflicts between the Federal DOMA and the state issue of Prop 8. Yes, there is logic in believing the, court could issue a split ruling trying to cut the baby in half as Chief Justice John Robertts attempted to do with Obamacare and failed, miserably. My gut tells me that's not what happens here. Kennedy can read the public sentiment tea leaves here. If he believes gay marriage is an idea whose time has come(to paraphrase Dirksen quoting Hugo), he's going to give the whole smash.
Put another way, I believe Kennedy's swing vote behavior is the result of a man who wants to be on the right side of History when he is the deciding vote on critical cases. That's why I believe SCOTUS taking this these cases will be a major, major victory for the gay marriage movement.