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Do The September Crop Numbers Add Up

by Mike Austin


Now that the markets has had some time to digest the numbers contained in the September Crop Production report we are seeing projections that the price impact will be relatively flat for corn but somewhat friendly for soybeans.  On the corn side the call for an average yield of 155 bushels per acre and a total crop of 13.8 billion bushels once again shows that despite less than cooperative weather conditions and delays, U.S. corn producers can still provide a bin buster of a crop. If these numbers are realized carryover stocks will increase substantially and prices will falter.

One Ag economists shared his opinion of the report and its price impact this way:

As for the beans there seems to be less certainty if the crop will reach or exceed the projected 3.15 billion bushels. Again some analyst look at the recent rains and wonder how beneficial they were to improving yields and if inventory will increase after harvest, especially in light of strong world demand for soybeans

Usually the September numbers are pretty accurate in determining the actual size of the crop and NASS went that extra mile nearly doubling the size of farmers they surveyed for the report and also doing two separate surveys just to make sure their numbers were reliable. But as always we won't know for certain what we'll actually have until the crop is in the bin.